Monday, November 29, 2010

Projected Temperatures for Worldwide Locations

Here's another exercise involving temperature records to project what temperatures will be in the future. The GISS people have been kind enough to put lots of station data for lots of stations around the world on their web site.

Here's the procedure: go to HERE
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Then click on Station Data, which takes you to the STATION DATA
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/


Note that the temperatures reported for the stations are mean (average) annual temperatures for those stations, not the temperature anomaly (Temperature Difference) we've talked about before.

For US locations, click on the map for a state. Here's a random example. Click on Nebraska, then look for stations that have records at least from 1900-2010. Take the first station (Minneapolis - Nebraska, not Minnesota!), click on the station name, and the mean annual temperatures will come up. You can be fancy and do a regression to predict the mean annual temperature in 2050. What's easier is just to use a ruler and eyeball the best-fit line for the points. My guesstimate is that the predicted mean annual temperature in 2050 is about 14.3 °C . This is well within the range of temperatures that show up on the graph - in other words, significant climate change isn't expected to happen by 2050 in Minneapolis, NE. Here's the graph:



If you think this station may not be representative, try a few more. I randomly clicked on Tecumseh. From the graph, it appears that the slope of the line is negative; that is, the mean annual temperature in Tecumseh is going down rather than up.

If you want to look at other countries, click on the map. Here's an example. I clicked on the tip of South Africa, about the location of Capetown. The Capetown Safr station has records from 1880-2010. The temperatures appear essentially to form a wave, with no clear direction. There's no reason to expect the temperature in 2050 to be significantly higher than at present. The Kimberly station has records from 1897-2010, and there appears to be a slight positive slope, but the projected temperature in 2050 isn't expected to be significantly higher than at present.

So far, I haven't found ANY stations with long-term records where the 2050 temperatures are projected to be significantly higher than the long-term average temperature for that station and/or the average temperature for the last 10 years. I'm sure there are such stations; I just haven't tried very hard to find them.

An interesting question is why the global warming people say the average temperatures are going up substantially (global warming) when it appears that the temperatures at the individual stations aren't going up significantly. Perhaps that's a subject for another day.